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Following a feature story last month, owner Frank Blair brings us the devastating news of his yacht’s destruction during a refit at her build yard, just days before her re-launch.

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  posted by webmaster | July 31, 2006  

Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Monday, 07.31.2006

Route: Salvador, Brazil to Cape Town, SA
Depart: approx. 1200utc, Tue, Aug 1, 2006

Prepared: 1100utc Mon, July 31, 2006

Summary: high pressure timing could work well for your trip

  • This morning, cold front can be seen on satellite near Caravelas (about 1730S on the Brazilian coast)
  • South of the front are S winds of 15-25kts to just N of Cabo Frio (E of Rio de Janeiro)
  • Cabo Frio and S to 40S, winds turn out of the SW at 20-40kts, bringing the cold and blustery air N
  • The low pressure (944 MB) associated with this cold front is now located near 60S/20W.
  • it is expected to slowly slide off to the E and SE this week
  • allowing the cold high pressure sitting over N Argentina to ease off the coast and be centered over Buenos Aires by 12utc on the 1st

The NE extent of this high will stretch to near 25N/25W on the 1st as it fills in behind the cold front that is pulling off to the E

  • Leaving SE-SSE winds, along the N side of the high, for your departure and first couple of days of travel S along the coast

Weaker, smaller lows will spiral clockwise around the main low into next week:

  • The first of these lows is expected to intensify near 48S/32W by 00utc on the 3rd
  • Looks like this low will be strong enough to bring the high pressure toward the NE and off the coastline behind the low’s cold front

By 12utc on the 6th, the high is expected to be near 30S/35W with N winds building along your route.

See routing below

Long range fcst shows 1027MB high centered near 28S/18W with a low near 40S/40W and a stronger low near 52S/3E around 00utc on the 16th:

  • with you in between the high and the eastern low in some sort of W-WNW wind
  • allowing you some leeway to head further N, closer to the center of the high, if winds and seas become too difficult

Routing

Recommend a course S along the Brazilian coast to about 20S:

  • with the center of the high centered near 28-30S, expect you’ll have to continue S to 28-30S to get into the more favorable N-NW winds on the back side of the high next week
  • then head on a mainly E course around the 6th , staying W of the center of the high, as it also slides to the E
  • should eventually be able to remain in favorable winds in the W, SW and S side of the high

Have kept your routing around 200 nm/day.

Wind Forecast

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speeds in KTS, and time is UTC

Mon, July 31 - offshore Salvador

18: 130-150/8-15

Weather: Partly cloudy

Seas 3-6ft

Tue, Aug 1

00: 120-140/6-14

06: 130-150/ 8-15

12: 140-160/10-17

Approx. departure

18: 130-150/12-20

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy, chance isolated showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 30kts. Seas building to 5-8ft , light S-SE swell.

Wed, Aug 2

00: 120-150/8-14

06: 130-150/12-20

12: 130-160/14-22

nr Belmonte (16S/38 40W)

18: 120-140/15-23

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy, chance isolated showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 30kts. Seas 5-8ft, light S swell.

Thu, Aug 3

00: 110-130/10-18

12: 100-120/12-20

nr 19 10S/39 30W

Weather:Variably cloudy with increased chc showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 30kts. Seas slowly building to 7-10ft during the day, mainly in increased S swell.

Fri, Aug 4

00: 130-160/13-22

12: 160-180/15-23

nr 22 30S/39 30W

18: 130-150/10-18

Weather:Variably cloudy with scattered showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 35kts Seas 7-10ft, S swell.

Sat, Aug 5

00: 110-130/12-20

12: 090-110/10-18

nr 22 30S/39 30W

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy, isolated showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 30kts. Seas 7-10ft, S swell

Sun, Aug 6

0: 030-060/12-18

12: 360-020/15-23

nr 29S/39 30W

Weather: Variably cloudy, increased chc showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 35kts. Seas 7-10ft, S swell.

Mon, Aug 7

00: 340-360/8-14

12: 330-350/10-18

nr 29S/35 20W

Weather: Variably cloudy with isolated showers/squalls. Possible gusts to 25-30kts. Seas 7-10ft, S swell.

  posted by Frank | July 31, 2006