Location: 34° 01.8 S, 06° 13.2 E
Saturday 12:00, 08.19.2006

The Schooner Maggie B was at 34° 01.8S 06° 13.2E at noon on August 19th. We are close hauled on the port tack, getting beaten up a bit in 25 knots of wind and a confused, rough sea. Cape Town is 630 NM on a bearing of 124 degrees magnetic. We are headed 124 degrees at 6.5-7.0 knots. The wind has been backing all morning and is now about 080 magnetic at 20-30. We have a reef in the fore and the main, and the jib is partially furled. We will probably put a second reef in the main after lunch (steak filets wrapped in bacon with garlic butter, mixed vegetables and rice).

A new low is quickly forming just South of us, and is the cause of this rough weather. It (Lucille?) should be our last low before Cape Town and we hope to ride the North side of it like a remora attached to a basking shark. We just hope that it doesn’t turn out to be a tiger shark or hammerhead!

This morning’s surprise was a nice 10″ squid on deck. It was on the high side, so must have jumped six feet to get aboard. Despite having an eye as big and sad as Bambi, it was fried up in butter and delicious.

According to the GRIB files and Commanders, this should be the worst of it, with the wind clocking around to the North, West and then South, all at 20 to 35. We should have a pretty good ride in. Did I mention moderate rain also? You can’t tell if the water on your face is salt of fresh until you taste it. A real foul weather gear test. Fortunately, we are all pretty well suited for the conditions.

All is well.

Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Friday, 08.18.2006

Route: Salvador, Brazil to Cape Town, SA

Departed: approx. 1200utc, Tue, Aug 1, 2006

Position: 32 52s/04 04e at 1200utc Fri, August 18

Prepared: 1530utc Fri, August 17, 2006

Summary

Slowly decaying swell the next 24-36 hours with a return to a reasonable sailing wind by tomorrow night

• Progression of gale centers well south of you between 50-60s is causing large SW sea
• Strongest of these is now over at about 35e and swell generated by it should begin to move past you tomorrow
• Swell now estimated 16-20 feet with both SW and WSW components should diminish to 9-12 feet by tomorrow
• Should move up to at least 28s and dissipate
• Cloud and drizzle should move past overnight
• High pressure center to the S near 38s 03e will move eastward along 38s
• You will remain close enough to ridge to keep fairly light wind through tonight
• Wind direction will gradually back into the ESE or E by this eveningand ENE by early tomorrow
• Low pressure developing to the west near your latitude will move to near 34s 01e by 12utc Sat and then to near 34s 10e at 12 utc Sun, weakening near 33s 16e at about 12 utc Mon
• Low redevelops and deepens east of Cape of Good Hope by Tue
• Winds should back to NE Sat afternoon and to NW by Sun morning as low moves by close to your S
• Then shift first to w, then SE as cold front passes and low pushes just to your E
• Based on forecast track of the low, think it important that you avoid more southing until Mon
• This should keep you in some type of westerly wind quadrant wind north of the low through Sun eve on north side of the low
• While if you are south of the low you will have NE shifting to SE as it passes
• Remaining between 32-33s should be adequate for this
• I recognize that being further N late in the period gives you increased distance and poorer wind angle to beat down to Capetown at the end
• Think that heading direct for Capetown later Sun night or early Monwhen winds turn SSE/SE is best compromise
• As next low approaches look for rain or showers and perhaps a period of squally conditions to develop by midday tomorrow with unsettled weather and occasional showers continuing through Monday
• Swell should build again to 10-14 feet on Mon, but from more of a SSW or S direction

Routing

1) Suggest holding between 32-33 until Sun night to avoid headwinds S of low center

2) Then take rhumb line for Cape town on wind shift to SSE/SE Sun night or early Mon at about 13e

3) Project your arrival in CapeTown sometime Tue afternoon depending on how much you are slowed by SE winds at the end

4) Waypoints listed below.

Wind Forecast

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speeds in KTS, and time is UTC

Fri, August 18

18: 110-090/5-12

Weather: Any drizzle ending and clouds thinning

Seas 12-16 feet, confused with SW and WSW swells, slowly subsiding a little

Sat, August 19

00: 100-080/ 8-15

06: 080-060/12-18

12: 070-050/15-20 near 32 40s/07 30e

18: 060-040/16-24

Weather: Thickening clouds early with rain or showers developing midday Seas 9-12 feet, SW swell and increasing wind wave chop

Sun, August 20

00: 030-360/24-32 06: 350-320/18-28

12: 300-280/15-22 near 32 40s/ 11 00e

18: 270-250/12-20 direction uncertain - should be SE-S not far to your south

Weather: Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of a few squalls Seas 8-11 feet but quite rough, SW swell and wind wave chop

Mon, Aug 21

00: becoming 180-160/16-24

12: 160-140/ 14-20 near 33s/ 15e

Weather.Mostly cloudy, still scattered showers

Seas 10-14 ft, SW swell and wind wave chop

Tue, Aug 22

00: 140-160/18-25

12: 140-160/20-30 gust 35 near 34s 18e

WeatherCloudy to partly cloudy, still chance of a shower

Seas 9-13 ft, quite rough with wind wave and S swell

Wed, Aug 23 - CapeTown

00: 140-160/20-30

12: 110-130/18-25

Weather.Partly cloudy, chance of a passing shower