Australia before Christmas? Strategic Advice from John Leavitt of Commanders’ Weather

Let me start by repeating the old adage that “normals” are just the average of the extremes.

1) How safe is The Maggie B from typhoons in Mahe, Seychelles over the Christmas holidays?

Although the South Indian tropical season peaks from December through March, Mahe at 4-5s, 55-56e is north of most of the exposure to these systems. US Navy data indicate that north of 5s,in the 5 deg box 0-5s and 55-60e, exposure to a tropical storm or tropical cyclone is about 1% per year, (regardless of month) but with highest probability in Dec and Jan. At 5-10s and both 55-60e and 50-55e, exposure rises to about 4-5% in eachof December and January. As these storms typically form closer to the equator and move on some type of WSW or SW track, near or north of 5s what exposure exists is virtually always to storms in their formative stages (close to the 35kt trigger for the above probabilities). In addition, one of the near-real time tools for forecasting tropical activity is the Madden-Julian oscillation (or MJO) which is a fairly complicated statistical assessment which correlates to favorability for tropical activity, and which changes fairly slowly, on a scale of months or seasons.

Recently, the MJO has been negative in this part of the world, correlating with quieter than normal convection and tropical activity. All of that being said, it appears that the odds are fairly low of a tropical problemin any given location over a period of several weeks or a month. But we can never say the chances are zero.

2) How do we get from Mahe to Australia in January?

We’re presuming that you are interested in getting to either Perth or to SE Australia (Sydney, Melbourne or even Brisbane) which would suggest a passage along the S coast, as opposed to choosing an initial destination in the north. Brynn and I favor your third option of heading for the westerlies and then going across. There are several reasons for this. First, the geographical probability of problems with the trades on any northern route are considerable, as at any given time you could expect a swath of 10-15 degrees of latitude, from typically from 10-15s down to around 25s where there would be a substantial and nearly continual headwind component. If not, the alternative on the northern side of the trades would be doldrums, with little wind, and what there is is not necessarilyfrom a favorable direction.

Tropicals are a concern, especially for NW Australia and the Timor Sea, if you head that way, and January-February is about the height of the season there. Incidentally, the MJO is not as protective there this season, although the phases typically progress westto east around the tropics over time. We would favor heading SE from Mahe, or a ways E and then SE to avoid the highest frequency tropical areas of the SW indian Ocean, which are near Mauritius, to a waypoint at 30-35s depending on where you get into the westerllies when the time comes, and then east to southern Australia.

3) Is Bali an “no go” in January - February?

Never say never. Bali is not particulary prone to tropicals, as they typically stay over the S/SE half of the North Australian Basin, even through you would be in peak season. Much of the problem is getting there (reference the comments above regarding trades and doldrums) but it mightnot be as bad to consider a route north of the ITCZ where prevailing winds are more NE/NNE in winter, unless too stormy. Approaching the Malay Peninsula and Indonesia, prevailing winds go more NW in winter. The other problem is, after Bali, where do you go next, as the probable routes, around NW Austrailia toward Perth, or through the Torres Strait and past Cairns both pass through the heart of tropical cyclone regions from Deember through April.

We can address details of all of these as you progress with your planning.

John Leavitt

Location: 15° 44.3 S, 44° 08.1 E
Friday 12:00, 11.03.2006

At noon today, the Schooner Maggie B was at 15° 44.3 S 44° 08.1 E. We are doggedly motoring into a light headwind, through somewhat choppy waves. We are 289 miles from Nosy Be and have come 2062 NM from Cape Town. There is about 1/3 knot of adverse current.

Today is a big day for us astronomically as the sun is right over us at 15° 06 S (OK, it was 38 miles north at noon). We are in some ways now heading “into winter” the same as our family and friends in the northern hemisphere. It will be strange to have the sun back in the southern sky again.

We haven’t quite decided on our first Madagascar landfall. At current VMG (velocity made good) towards Nosy Be, we would arrive at approximately 0500 on November 5th. There are some wonderful islands South of Nosy Be, and currently we are making for them, specifically Nosy Saba, which the East Africa Pilot describes as: “stunningly beautiful….beautifully clear water…large game fish….pleasant walking….plenty of wildlife.” But, then there is the lure of Nosy Be and “the boisterous discotheque at La Vieux Port — Rendezvous des Marins. There you will be educated in the wild art of Malagasy dancing until 0800 or so the next morning.” Decisions, decisions.

The one island that we won’t be stopping at is Nosy Lava (Long Island), which is the site of Madagascar’s maximum security prison. It became particularly famous in yachting circles in 1993 when two murderers broke out, killed the crew of the yacht Magic Carpet, and sailed to the mainland.

Separately on the web site, I have posted the latest information from Commanders Weather, when I asked for strategic advice. With the marvelous complexity of Madagascar in front of us and then the beauty of the Seychelles not far after that, the chances of making Australia (Perth?) in time for Christmas home leave, seem remote. So I asked Commanders three questions: 1) is it safe to leave the Maggie B over Christmas in the Seychelles (safe from typhoons, that is), 2) what is the best way to get to Australia from the Seychelles, and 3) any chance of going by Bali on the way to Australia. Their answer is very interesting and fits with my planning: 1) Yes, 2) like from Brazil to Cape Town, go south and pick up the westerlies and 3) no.

Yesterday at lunch we continued our poetry readings (I forgot to post it). Hannah read John Masefield’s excellent “Sea Fever.” A future shipmate, Robert Farrar, added to the discussion with an emailed copy of Octavio Paz’s marvelous “Towards the Poem,” which I read. Today Bori read Thackeray’s delicious “The Ballad of Bouillabaisse,” which made us salivate even though we were having a perfect meal of chicken breasts poached in white wine with onions and carrots.

We will be at some Nosy by the 5th.

All is well.