Commander’s Weather Corporation
Saturday, 02.03.2007

From: Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Route: Port Louis, Mauritius to Perth, Australia
Position: 32 39s/66 53e at 1200utc Sat, Feb 3
Prepared: 1300UTC Saturday, February 3, 2007

Summary

Very impressive tropical cyclone - Dora is located near 19-20S/65-67E

a) Max sustained winds are estimated near 120 kts with gusts to 150
b) Dora has been moving slowly SW
c) Approaching cold front will tend to pull Dora in a more southerly direction
d) Long range weather models still trap Dora far to the NW of you
e) Still, we need to keep a close eye on this system as the weather models don’t always handle tropical systems very well

Gale near 41-42S/58-60W will move quickly SE

a) Attending cold front is located NW from this gale to southern Madagascar
b) This cold front will be slow to move ENE
c) Keep in mind we need to watch and see if Dora and the cold front interact - unlikely, but need to watch closely

You will continue to sail around the western side of the high pressure ridge to your E

a) Winds will be mostly light and getting lighter with more easting in your heading, so just sail deeper, as the winds back
b) Unfortunately. winds will slowly back, so you will be sailing more E than S by later Sun and Mon
c) in most cases, more wind speed to the S than E over the next 3-4 days
d) Just keep up the boat speed

By Tue the cold front will be approaching and winds will become more westerly, just ahead of the cold front

a) You will be on port, but with a west wind, you may want to go to starboard/more S and get into the stronger S winds behind the cold front as quickly as practical

High pressure trailing the cold front will be S of 40S

a) This will/should prevent Dora from tracking SE during the next 4-5 days
b) Your S winds will likely back into the S-SE for a while late Wed/early Thu
c) At that time, we could consider port tack and head S for the next cold front, but we can work on that later

Routing

Continue to sail best angle/fast as possible to the SE during the next 2-3 days

With a W wind on Tue, let’s go S to the cold front and then head E

Later in the week, we may want to tack S again

Wind Forecasts
Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC
Sat, Feb 3
18: 050-020/15-20
Mix of clouds and sunshine today and tomorrow, but probably no shower activity

Sun, Feb 4
00: 030-360/13-18
06: 030-360/10-15, lighter winds to the E and stronger to the S
12: 020-350/ 9-13, near 34 10S/69 30E
18: 350-020/10-15
Mon, Feb 5
00: 340-010/ 8-14
06: 350-020/ 7-13
12: 350-020/ 8-14, near 35 30S/72 10E
18: 340-010/ 7-13
Increasing clouds late day and at night, chc of a few showers late at night.

Tue, Feb 6
00: 330-30010-15
06: 300-320/12-17
12: 300-270/13-18, near 35 20S/75 30E
18: 190-220/12-17
Scattered showers, maybe a squall, diminishing with the wind shift into the S-SW

Wed, Feb 7
00: 180-200/13-18
12: 170-190/13-18, near 37S/79E
Partly cloudy

Thu, Feb 8
00: 170-190/12-17, still on starboard tack
12: 200-240/ 7-13, near 36 30S/82 20E and probably still on starboard, heading SE
Partly to mostly cloudy with a threat of squally showers at night.

Location: 32° 39 S, 66° 53 E
Saturday 12:00, 02.03.2007

The Schooner Maggie B was at 32° 39S, 66° 53E at noon on February 3rd. We are headed 155 deg. M at 8 knots still with one reef in the fore and main despite the wind lightening to 12-14 knots from the NE. We did 188 NM in the last 24 hours and are 2461 NM from Fremantle and have come 1904 since the Seychelles.

The barometer is rising steadily, now up to 1016 and the wind is backing and easing. But we are watching multiple layers of clouds, with the high ones coming in from the West and the low ones blowing across from the East. Clearly something going on. But the GRIB files predict a nice 10-15 knot beam reach as we slide down to our “Westerly Highway to Fremantle” at about 38 degrees South. So far so good.

I just don’t want to miss the chance to, once again, laud the marvel of Nigel Iren’s design and the success of North Sails sails, and the work of all else involved. Here we are in February in the Southern Indian Ocean with an easy close reach in 12-14 knots of wind, with a reef in the main and fore, doing eight knots! It is comfortable enough even in 5-8 foot chop and swells to have Bori’s excellent Tortillas de Patatas for a sit-down lunch, chased with Hannah’s chocolate and banana bread for dessert.

We are scrubbing and sanding the decks, and going through all the bilges to pump them dry and clean them out.

Logs of dreams are maybe not a great idea, but my waking dream was so cool I want to share it. I was Captain of a square rigged sloop in about 1780 and had been caught by the British for smuggling (rum? arms?) and taken into Boston, tried, convicted and sentenced to be shot. It was a very rich dream, in color with full details. Somehow I persuaded the British that it would be much more impressive to take me and the crew back to our ship, anchor it close in the harbor and execute us there. Sort of like the heads on Traitor’s Gate in London. But we seized the ship from the poorly trained execution squad, threw them overboard and made off for Blue Water. I was woken by Owen sanding the deck above me, rather like All Hands at 0600 in the Old Days.

This morning we were also happy to hear from sailing friends: our shipmate Willis arriving safely in Georgetown, SC after a very difficult winter run from Long Island (Willis — comeback! It’s nicer here!), and South African friends we met in Knysna, having made it to Trinidad from Cape Town on a catamaran delivery to French Polynesia. The Shellback skipper put his pollywog crew over the side on ropes and dragged them across the Equator as part of their initiation. Trolling for Neptune?

All is well.