We hoist the Blue Peter to head for Nelson, NZ

The Schooner Maggie B has finally hoisted the Blue Peter. The Blue Peter is Code Flag “Papa” which is white in the center and blue outside. It means “outward bound” and was a warning to crew that a ship was ready to sail. We are off for Nelson, New Zealand after clearing Customs and finishing all the last minute errands.

Those with a meteorologic interest should check the Commanders forecast which is posted somewhere on the web site. There is a “deep gale” out in front of us in the Tasman Sea. This is good news as it will throw off southerlies behind it, which we should pick up tonight. More interesting is a “monster late fall gale” with pressure to 960mb south of Tasmania, but coming this way. We should be timed just right that we will have the help of this first one, then a day of motoring and then pick up the Northerlies of the next one, and tuck ourselves into Nelson well before it gets too big. Our usual rule is to motor when the wind gets light enough so we slow to four knots. This trip it will be six knots. I don’t want to hang out in the Tasman Sea and get the full brunt of this second low.

All is well.

Commanders Weather Corporation
Sunday 12:00, 04.29.07

From: Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Route: Hobart, Tasmania to Nelson, South Island, NZ
Departure: 00utc Mon, April 30, 2007
Prepared: 1515utc Sun, April 29, 2007

Summary:

The current weather map features a deep gale centered in the central Tasman Sea.

Central pressure is around 990mb or 29.24 inches.

A ridge of high pressure is located to the west of this gale from south central Australia southeastward passing just SW of Tasmania

This ridge then cuts south of the gale and then heads NE toward eastern New Zealand.

This ridge then cuts south of the gale and then heads NE toward eastern New Zealand.

For departing 00utc, expect an E wind but speeds will be light, then winds will clock to S by 12utc.

Speeds will freshen as you get east up to 15-22 knots.

You will continue in the southerly flow on the back side of the gale into Tuesday, but by later Tuesday the ridge to the west will quickly build over the top of you with winds backing to E and becoming much lighter.

Speeds will decrease to 5-12 knots.

The gale to the east will be near North Island, NZ on Wednesday and weakening rapidly and the ridge of high pressure will head east about thesame pace as you.

Expect winds to remain fairly light, but will start to freshen andback to more NE later Wednesday.

By Thursday, a monster late fall gale will be near 53s/132e with a pressure forecast to be near 960mb or 28.35 inches!

The cold front from this gale will be passing through Tasmania andentering the SW Tasman Sea.

Expect winds to back to the N to NNW Thursday as the cold front starts to approach.

This front looks slower now than it did yesterday and this will also give it time to weaken somewhat as it approaches from the SW.

This is good news for you as you will have northerlies longer and speeds not quite as strong as it appeared yesterday, but they could stillreach 20-30 knots..

The cold front looks to struggle to head east approaching New Zealandlate this week/next weekend, but eventually winds should clock to at least the west.

Seas will become large by Thursday and continue that way through Saturday with combined swell and wind wave chop.

Must emphasize that computer models do poorly in this part of the world especially with fast westerly flow later into the fall, so things could change quite a bit from how it looks now for later in the week, so suggest getting an update every other day during this trip, at least until you are 2-3 days from New Zealand.

Please let us know if you decide to leave or not.

Routing

Hobart to 41 30s/152e then rhumb line

Any strong N winds - you can go S of rhumb line, but come back as soon as winds free you

Wind Forecasts
Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC

Mon, April 30
00: 080-100/ 5-12 depart
06: 120-150/ 7-14
12: 160-180/12-20 - winds could exceed 20 kts at times E of 150e
18: 170-190/15-22
Weather: Variable clouds with a chance of isolated to widely scattered showers Seas 5-9 feet, confused swell

Tue, May 1
00: 180-200/12-20 near 41 30s/152e - set rhumb line course for Nelson
06: 170-140/12-18
12: 160-120/10-16
18: 120-090/ 5-12
Weather: Variably to partly cloudy Seas decreasing to 4-7 feet, mainly SE swell

March 7
00: 360-030/17-25 near 37s/115 30e
06: 340-010/15-22
12: 320-350/12-20, squally showers near front
18: 300-330/10-16, chance of shifting to 220-240
Weather: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and potential for isolated squalls Seas 6-8 ft, SW swell

Thu, March 8
00: bcmg 180-210/17-25 near 38s/119e
06: 170-200/12-20
12: 200-230/10-15
18: 210-240/12-18
Weather: Variably cloudy with a few squally showers likely, then partial clearing Seas 4-7 feet, mainly SW swell

Wed, May 2
00: 070-100/ 5-12 near 41 35s/156e
06: 060-030/ 7-14
12: 050-020/10-15
18: 030-360/12-18
Weather: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers and squalls at night Seas 4-7 feet, building to 6-10 feet late, increasing W swell

Thu, May 3
00: 360-340/15-25 near 41 30s/160e
12: 350-010/18-25
Weather: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and squalls Seas 10-15 feet, NW swell and wind wave chop

Fri, May 4
00: 350-010/18-25 near 41s/164e
12: 340-360/20-30, gusts/squalls 40-50
Weather: Becoming cloudy with more showers and squalls likely overnight Seas 10-16 feet, NW swell and wind wave chop

Sat, May 5
00: 330-350/18-25 near 41s/168 30e
12: 310-280/10-18