Commander’s Weather Corporation
Tuesday, 01.16.2007

From: Commanders’ Weather Corporation, tel: 603-882-6789

Route: Mahe, Seychelles toward Mauritius to Perth/Fremantle, Australia

Depart: approx. 0600utc, Thu, Jan 18, 2007

Prepared: 1800UTC Tue, January 16, 2007

Summary:

Satellite shows a lot of cloud cover and convection extending from 10N-10S between the Maldives/Chagos Islands area westward - just moving into the Seychelles.

• Light winds being reported at the Mahe airport currently, with some light showers in the area.
• NW-N-NE of Mahe, there have been W-NW winds of 20-50kts in thunderstorms.

The warmest sea surface temperatures in the SW Indian Ocean can be found E of 60E and between 5-15S

• The forecast models hint at some type of tropical low trying to organize just to the NE of Mahe over this next week but never allow the weak circulation to develop
• We’ll continue to follow any possibly tropical activity in this region

Strong high pressure is currently found centered over the S Indian Ocean, near 35S/80E

• mainly E trade winds are seen along the N edge of this circulation to 10S
• with more light and variable winds between 10S and the equator, in regions without thunderstorm activity
• think you will have a fairly light trip, interspersed with a chance of some thunderstorms

As you move toward Mauritius later this week, a strong low pressure area is forecast to slide SE into the far S Indian Ocean around 80E

• The cold front associated with this low is expected to stretch from S Madagascar to the SE near 45S/80E by 12utc on the 18th
• During the weekend, this frontal boundary will slowly push the SIndian Ocean high pressure to the E and weaken it

On Sunday, another strong low will slide E across the far S Indian Ocean dragging another frontal boundary from Mauritius Island toward the SE, near 40S/80E

• Low pressure areas and tropical lows can form and travel SE along these type of frontal boundaries as the boundaries slide E across the S Indian Ocean
• Currently, there are no such lows forecast in the short -medium range time period but we’ll keep watching.

Routing

Generally S toward Mauritius

• Routed you at about 170-180 nm/day in some gusty thunderstorm conditions then lighter winds S of 10S

Wind Forecasts

Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC

Wed, Jan 17

00: 290-320/ 10-20

12: 280-310/ 12-20 gusts/squalls to 30

Weather: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Seas: mainly 2-4 ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Thu, Jan 18

00: 270-300/ 10-18

06: 280-310/ 10-20 gusts/squalls to 30

Approx. departure

12: 290-320/ 10-20, gusts 30-35

18: 260-310/12-20

Weather: variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Fri, Jan 19

00: light and variable to 250-300/5-12

06: 240-280/6-12 some gusts 20

12: 200-240/ 5-12 some gusts 20

nr 7 50S/56E

18: light and variable

Weather: variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Sat, Jan 20

00: light and variable to 050-090/5-10

12: becoming 050-090/5-12

nr 10 50S/ 56E

Weather: Variably cloudy with chc isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some gusts to 25-30kts in any thunderstorms.

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Sun, Jan 21

00: 040-080/ 6-14

12: 050-090/ 7-15

nr 13 50S/56 30E

Weather: Variably cloudy with increased chc showers and thunderstorms. Some gusts to 25-30kts in any
thunderstorms.

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Mon, Jan 22

00: 050-080/ 6-15

12: 040-070/ 10-17

nr 16 50S/56 50E

Weather: Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Some gusts to 25-30kts in any
thunderstorms.

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms

Tue, Jan 23

00: 020-050/ 5-12

12: 030-060/ 7-15

nr Mauritius

Weather: Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Some gusts to 25-30kts in any
thunderstorms.

Seas mainly 3-6ft, could become choppy and confused in any thunderstorms