Commander’s Weather Corporation
Tuesday, 02.06.2007

From: Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Route: Port Louis, Mauritius to Perth, Australia
Position: 36 30s/74 45e at 0000utc Tue, Feb 6
Prepared: 1230UTC Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Summary

Unfortunately you may be hearing more from us in the coming days!

Looks like the cold front passed you around 0600UTC +/- 2 hours and you must now be in a S wind

a) trailing high pressure is in a bad spot, near 43-45S/62-65E, which is S of you and this means you will soon have S-SE and SE winds, so upwind

This means you will have 3 options

a) motor straight E - the wind speeds/seas will not be that great, so will be able to do this, if you have sufficient fuel
b) sail upwind as tight as possible. Once again, winds and seas are not that bad, so should be able to hold a decent angle and not be forced too far N
c) can motor S and try to get thru the high and into the westerlies

There will be a series of monster cold fronts moving from the SW to the NE later this week into next, so I am reluctant to get you too far S, too early

a) I sailed/motor sailed the S-SE and SE winds E and ENE until the high pressure area moves closer, to you
b) this means another 24 hrs or so going E and then winds are more SE and ESE and quite light, so now we use the engine and get S and into the westerlies, but
c) only want to touch the westerlies and start going E or probably ESE. Basically, we keep working S until the wind speeds are strong enough for a quick sail to the E or ENE

Tropical Cyclone Dora will remain trapped to your NW, but always a good idea to keep an eye on her!

Series of big cold fronts will move quickly NE Fri - Sun

a) 1st arrives Friday
b) remember, these will be southern ocean cold fronts - very squally, even after the wind shift into the S-SW and in general, the worst conditions are 12-24 hrs after the initial wind shift
c) there will be a BIG surge of wind and sea on Sat, but Sun calms down
d) however this will be followed by another big cold front early next week

Good news, this fronts will extend right up into Perth, so if under control, it will be a fast ride into Perth

Routing

Prefer easting right now and let the high get closer before committingto the S

a) by letting the high pressure catch up to us, we don’t have to go asfar S to catch the trailing westerlies
2) Motor S when winds become E tomorrow
3) Once into the westerlies, fastest gybe to the E
a) maybe starboard gybe at 1st, but
b) once wind speeds are higher, then port gybe will be strongly favored, even if N of rhumb line
4) Once the cold front passes on Friday, only 1 option, as comfy as possible on starboard

Wind Forecasts
Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC

Tue, Feb 6
18: 170-140/10-15
Partly to mostly cloudy today and tomorrow, but more sunshine with time.

Wed, Feb 7
00: 170-150/10-15
06: 150-130/10-15
12: 140-110/ 8-14, near 37S/79E
18: 100-070/ 7-12

Thu, Feb 8
00: light/variable, going thru the middle of the high
06: light/variable
12: 240-270/ 7-13, probably on starboard, near 39 40S/79 30E
18: 240-270/11-16, over to port!!!
Partly cloudy.

Fri, Feb 9
00: 240-270/20-30
06: 230-200/18-24, maybe a squall or 2 to 35 kts
12: 220-190/20-30, near 39 40S/82 30E
18: 210-240/17-23
Increasing clouds with rain and squalls likely with the initial wind shift, but still a scattering of small, brief squalls 6-12 hrs after the initialwind shift. Seas becoming SW and increasing to 6-10 feet

Sat, Feb 10
00: 220-250/25-40, squalls to 50
12: 190-210/30-40, squalls to 50, near 39 10S/86 50E, being further N canlimit wind speeds by 5-10 kts
Fast changing sky conditions with numerous, fast moving, brief squalls to50 kts. Rough with seas up to 12-18 feet.

Sun, Feb 11
00: 190-210/26-34, squalls 40-45
12: 210-240/16-24, just a brief lull near 38 30S/91E
Squalls ending then partly cloudy, but more squalls likely on Monday. Seas up to 12-18 feet, but falling before increasing again on Monday.