Commanders’ Weather Corporation
Tuesday, 08.15.2006

Route: Salvador, Brazil to Cape Town, SA

Departed: approx. 1200utc, Tue, Aug 1, 2006

Position: 31 51s 06 05w at 1400utc Tue, August 15

Prepared: 1530utc Tue, August 15

Summary

Looks like a continuation of favorable conditions through Thursday night, then a cold front will pass through bringing a period of headwinds Friday and Saturday

• The current weather map features a ridge of high pressure to the northoriented from west to east mainly along 28-29s.
• A very deep gale is centered well to the south near 65s/2w and is veryexpansive covering much of the southwest South Atlantic Ocean.
• This pattern will continue to bring you favorable wind directions fromthe WNW to NW through Thursday night as we have a blocking pattern with the weather systems not really moving too fast.
• Direction should continue mainly between 270-310.
• Speeds will be mainly 12-20 knots today and Wednesday, but increasing a bit Thursday as a cold front approaches from the south.
• Unfortunately it looks as if the tail end of this cold front will makeit through your route with winds quickly backing to ESE to E by Friday morning.
• The front looks to make it as far north as about 30s before stalling out
• Winds do not look terribly strong behind the front as there is only weak high pressure to follow, so that is good news.
• However, it looks like you will be in for a period of headwinds Fridayand Saturday with the pattern coming in.
• Guidance indicates a low developing to your west this weekend and if this verifies, expect winds to back to more of a NE direction and increase in speed, so at least that would bring an end to your headwinds.
• General weather will be mainly fair and settled today and Wednesday, then as the front approaches later Thursday into Friday, expect some showers and squalls around.
• Seas will continue on the large side with a large SW long wave swell continuing to come in, but there will be times when it eases a bit.

Routing

1) Looked at taking you further north to near 30s or even a bit further than that to try to avoid these headwinds coming Friday and Saturday but the problem with that is you would then have SE headwinds over the weekend and for your approach to Cape Town early next week, so that is not advisable.

2) Still not a good idea to go further south due to even higher seas and stronger winds either.

3) Suggest continuing mainly along 32s through Saturday, then beginning to head ESE on more of a rhumb line towards Cape Town.

4) Waypoints listed below.

Wind Forecast Wind directions are TRUE, wind speeds in KTS, and time is UTC

Tue, August 15

18: 290-310/15-20

Weather: Partly to variably cloudy Seas subsiding to 6-10 feet, SW swell

Wed, August 16

00: 280-310/12-20

06: 280-310/12-20

12: 280-310/12-20 near 31 50s/3w

18: 290-310/15-20

Weather: Partly to variably cloudy Seas building back up to 10-15 feet, increasing SW swell

Thu, August 17

00: 280-310/15-22

06: 270-300/15-25

12: 270-300/18-25 near 31 55s/00 40e

18: 280-310/18-25

Weather: Variable cloudiness with a chance of showers Seas 8-12 feet, SW swell and wind wave chop

Fri, August 18

00: 270-290/18-25

12:100-130/12-20 near 32s/4e

Weather: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and squalls

Seas 10-15 feet, SW swell and wind wave chop especially early

Sat, August 19

00: 080-110/12-18

12: 060-090/12-18 near 32 10s/7e

Weather: Variable clouds with a chance of showers Seas 10-15 feet, SW swell and wind wave chop

Sun, August 20

00: 040-070/20-30

12: 040-060/20-30 near 32 45s/9 40e

Weather: Mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers and squalls Seas 8-14 feet, SW swell and choppy