Commanders Weather Corporation
Wednesday 12:00, 02.14.2007

From: Commanders' Weather Corporation
Route: Port Louis, Mauritius to Perth, Australia
Position: 33 32s/103 29e at 1200utc Wed, Feb 14
Prepared: 1330utc Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Summary:

As is frequently the case in the Southern Oceans, weather systems are fast moving and frequently more robust than expected - this will be the case with the cold front over the weekend, going into Perth

High pressure trailing the cold front that passed you earlier today, is located just NE of St Paul Island and will remain well to your W, so no risk of SE winds going into Perth

There is a 2nd cold front located near 40-42S/95E at 1200UTC Wed

a) this front will move more E than NE, but will cause your winds to become more WSW or even W
b) directly downwind, so split gybes - I would probably go back to port gybe, only to keep you further N and away from the stronger winds associated with the Fri night/Sat cold front. In addition, the strongest winds will be NW winds and an approach from due W of Perth will be favored
c) you may get a brief squall and a little left shift in about 21-24 hrs, but any SW winds will be brief, behind this 2nd cold front

Intense gale near the Kerguelen Islands at 1200UTC today will move almost due E

a) pressure will be down to around 950 mbs near 45S/110E at 1200UTC Fri
b) I think part of the energy for this low came from ex-TC Dora

Anyways, you will see freshening WNW and NW winds on Friday - they could be quite strong, but as you know, fairly smooth sailing until just before the cold front arrives

Late Fri night/Sat morning will be the greatest risk time for squalls

a) winds will shift into the SW to take you into Perth
Routing

Like what you are doing now

When winds back into the WSW and W, probably port gybe

a) will have a brief period of starboard/SW winds as the 2nd cold front passes

Port gybe at Perth with the big NW winds on Fri

a) likely will be passed by a cold front before you reach Perth, whichmeans starboard again
4) Sorry about all the gybes!
Wind Forecasts
Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC
Wed, Feb 14
18: 240-210/16-24, maybe a brief squall to 30 kts
WeatherChangeable skies, maybe a brief squall or 2, especially this evening and again late tonight/Thu morning
Thu, Feb 15
00: 230-250/16-24, winds more S-SW and lighter to the N and more WSW/stronger to the S
06: 230-260/16-22
12: 240-210/12-18, sailing into the high pressure ridge, nr 32 50S/107 10E
18: 240-280/ 7-14
WeatherChance of an early squall then partly cloudy. Seas will diminish daytime, but W-SW swell will increase again later at night
Fri, Feb 16
00: 280-310/12-24
06: 290-310/25-35
12: 280-300/28-36, near 32 30S/111 30E
18: 280-300/25-35, maybe a squall over 40 kts
Partly sunny daytime with seas increasing to 12-18 feet. Increasing clouds overnight with an increasing threat of squalls - seas up to 15-20 feet
Sat, Feb 17
00: 300-240/16-24 and squalls over 40 kts
12: 240-210/16-24 - Perth
Squalls ending during the morning then cloudy to partly cloudy. Seas 12-18 feet, but falling throughout the day.