Commanders Weather Corporation
Sunday 15:30, 03.04.2007

From: Commanders' Weather Corporation
Route: Fremantle, Australia to Hobart
Departure: 0500utc Mon, March 5, 2007
Prepared: 1530utc Sun, March 4, 2007
Summary:
See no problems with leaving tomorrow (Mon) afternoon, but we'll have to watch out for rougher conditions by later in the week, as a cold front pushes thru the area!!

Area of high pressure (1023 mb) is located south of Australia near 40s/16-130e, while thermal trough (1004 mb) resides mainly north of 30s along the western Australian coast

Trough shifts more offshore overnight, which will allow wind to be mainly light E or E-SE into Mon AM

a) Wind speeds <10 knots closer to shore, but maybe into teens offshore

3) But during the afternoon trough shifts closer to the coast, which willallow for the thermal sea breeze to form.

a) Wind shifts more into the SE or S-SE close to shore, but b) Think you could run into SE winds into the 20s later in the afternoon/evening.

4) By Tue, high pressure moves E-SE toward and close to Tasmania, while ridge axis extends W-NW to S of Cape Leeuwin.

a) Wind diminishes from the E to NE, as you near this ridge during day on Tue,

5) Low pressure organizes west of 100e during Tue and heads SE into Wed, while associated cold front tracks toward the east.

6) Ahead of this front, look for increasing NE to N winds Tue night into Wed, which then diminishes as the front approaches later Wed.

a) Will be increasing chance for squally showers as front approaches
b) Wind shifts into NW, then turns into the SW to S behind the front late Wed night or Thu AM

7) Briefly gusty behind the front, but then diminishes to the teens for much of Thu.

8) By later Thu or Fri, low pressure strengthens to the south, while highpressure (west of 110e) expands toward the east.

9) Gradient between both systems will produce stronger SW winds Fri into Sat.

a) Could be a period of 30-40 knts w/higher gusts
b) With colder SW flow, there could be some instability type clouds with showers
c) Seas may reach 15 ft

10) Conditions improve later Sat into Sun, as high pressure builds eastward.

Routing

Looks best to head SW to near 34s/114e to 37s/115 30e, then close to a direct route to Hobart

With the stronger SW winds Fri and Sat, you may have to head more east for a time

Waypoints listed below

Wind Forecasts
Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC
Mon, March 5
00: 070-090/8-14
06: 100-130/6-12 depart
12: bcmg 130-150/18-28
18: 130-090/24-12 Weather: Fair to partly cloudy Seas 6-10 feet, wind wave chop mixed with SW swell
Tue, March 6
00: 080-040/ 8-14 near 34s/114e
06: 030-060/ 5-10
12: 070-090/12-17
18: 020-050/16-24
Weather: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and squalls late Seas 7-10 feet, SW to WSW swell and increasing chop late Wed,
March 7
00: 360-030/17-25 near 37s/115 30e
06: 340-010/15-22
12: 320-350/12-20, squally showers near front
18: 300-330/10-16, chance of shifting to 220-240
Weather: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and potential for isolated squalls Seas 6-8 ft, SW swell
Thu, March 8
00: bcmg 180-210/17-25 near 38s/119e
06: 170-200/12-20
12: 200-230/10-15
18: 210-240/12-18
Weather: Variably cloudy with a few squally showers likely, then partial clearing Seas 4-7 feet, mainly SW swell
Fri, March 9
00: 210-240/18-26 near 39s/123e
12: 210-240/25-40, higher gusts?
Weather: Variable clouds with a chance of showers and squalls Seas building to 10-15 feet, increasing SW swell and wind wave chop
Sat, March 10
00: 190-220/25-40 near 40s/126 30e
12: 210-240/30-15
Weather: decreasing clouds Seas near 15 ft, large SW swell
Sun, March 11
00: bcmg light/variable near 41s/130 30e
12: bcmg 300-330/ 7-12
Weather: fair skies Seas down to 6-9 ft SW swell